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“How do you assess the size of a crowd? Absent ticketing or turnstiles, it’s a question that has vexed authorities, organisers and media – just about everyone except Donald Trump – since time immemorial. The subject reared its blurry heads most recently in New Zealand during the Hīkoi mō te Tiriti, first as the crowds marched through Auckland and, especially, as protesters demonstrated their opposition to policies affecting Māori on the streets of Wellington and outside parliament. Some asked whether it might just be the most populated New Zealand protest of all time. There were around 100,000 there, reckoned Rawiri Waititi. More like 22,000, said Winston Peters. ‘A hell of a lot more than 35,000,’ said Shane Jones. Media estimates ranged from 17,000 to 100k. Online sleuths rattled out their appraisals like Wall Street traders. A Ngāpuhi data nerd in Canada whose aunty was massaging tired marchers in Wainuiomata studied drone footage and concluded 50,000 at least. At times such as these, the counts that tend to get repeated into calcified form come from the constabulary. They have no formal responsibility to stick a number on the tin, but their calculations are of critical importance – in managing resources, forestalling any dangerous overcrowding and so on. The official police estimate just before 1pm on that Tuesday in November was 35,000. Four hours later, that was revised up to 42,000. How, then, do they arrive at that number, with its polish of authority? Is there some fancy, cutting-edge tech they deploy in the cause? A crowd-size manual? A superintendent with special responsibility for estimate-ops? I filed an official information request to find out.”
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Revealed: How the NZ Police estimates crowd sizes
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